文章摘要
王新安,马爱军.应用时间序列分析模型对大菱鲆选育F1优良家系发育的动态研究[J].水产学报,2010,34(9):1319~1326
应用时间序列分析模型对大菱鲆选育F1优良家系发育的动态研究
The time series of development of selected families of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.) selective breeding F1
投稿时间:2010-05-06  修订日期:2010-07-12
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1231.2010.06955
中文关键词: 大菱鲆  家系  时间序列  模型
英文关键词: turbot(Scophthalmus maximus L.)  family  the time series  model
基金项目:现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(nycytx-50); 国家支撑计划专题(2006BAD01A12012);农业公益性行业科研专项经费项目(nyhyzx07-046);中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所基本科研业务费项目(2009-ts-11)
作者单位E-mail
王新安 中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所 wangxa@ysfri.ac.cn 
马爱军 中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所 maaj@ysfri.ac.cn 
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中文摘要:
      根据Box-Jenkins建模原理,采用ARIMAR(p,d,q)模型,以大菱鲆选育F1优良家系为研究对象,应用时间序列分析方法对在3~27月龄间不同发育阶段体重的生长速度进行动态模拟,建立各家系的预测模型。结果表明,家系E1×E♀2和F2×E♀4符合ARIMAR(2,0,0)模型(2个家系的模型都不含常数项),家系F4×N♀3、E2×F♀1和F1×F♀4符合ARIMAR(1,0,0)模型(3个家系的模型都不含常数项),且所建模型的残差均为白噪声。由此预测出27~27.5及27.5~28月龄各家系体重生长速度,经与相应实测数据的验证说明,5个家系各自所建模型在一定程度上能够反映大菱鲆体重生长速度的动态变化过程,对各家系体重生长速度的趋势预测有一定的适用性。通过对每一家系后期生长速度的预测,结合前期生长速度的实测值,综合分析体重生长速度的动态变化,为在大菱鲆选择育种过程中确定最佳选择时间提供理论依据。
英文摘要:
      Turbot,a flatfish of deep water species,is a high nutrition and economic valued species and currently cultured widely in China.In recent years,however,serious germ plasm degeneration has come into being due to the lack of the long-term and effective broodstock management programmes,production of farmed turbot became highly unstable and total output declined gradually.Therefore,the genetic improvement of turbot will be necessary to sustain the industry development.Within a breeding program in aquaculture,growth rate which determines the total harvest yield is a highly desirable economic trait.However,the growth rate at different development is variational because genes are expressed selectively at different growth stages following a certain sequence of time and place.It is necessary,obviously,to determine a good selection time during selective breeding for obtaining maximal genetic gain.In present study,according to Box-Jenkins theory and ARIMA(p,d,q)model,the time series of growth rate of body weight of five selected families of turbot selective breeding F1 were identified,simulated and predicted.SPSS 15.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model.Raw data for model establishment and validation were from 3 to 27 months.The results showed that family E1×E♀2,F4×N♀3,F2×E♀4,E2×F♀1 and F1×F♀4 adapt to ARIMA(2,0,0),ARIMA(1,0,0),ARIMA(2,0,0),ARIMA(1,0,0)and ARIMA(1,0,0)model,respectively(Constants were not included in all five models).The residual errors of five models were all the white noise series(P>0.05).Relative precisions of the forecasting for growth rate of body weight of five families during months 27-27.5,27.5-28 were comparatively high,which indicated those ARIMA models are able to well-describe the temporal and spatial changes in growth rate of body weight of turbot.The development changes of growth rate of body weight would be analysed through past observed values and forecast values,which can provide theoretic basis for determining optimal selection time during selective breeding of turbot.
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