文章摘要
黄永进.利用东太平洋海温距平预报鳗苗捕获量[J].水产学报,1990,14(1):8~14
利用东太平洋海温距平预报鳗苗捕获量
FORECAST OF THE EEL FRY CATCH BY SST ANOMALIES OF EASTERN PACIFIC
投稿时间:1988-11-01  修订日期:1989-07-01
DOI:
中文关键词: 距平  鳗苗  相关  预报
英文关键词: anomaly  eel fry  correlation  forecast
基金项目:
作者单位
黄永进 江苏省海洋渔业指挥部 南通 
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中文摘要:
      本文研究了预报鳗苗捕获量的方法。非埃尔·尼诺年以后发生埃尔·尼诺的次年属于鳗鱼捕获量的增加隼度。捕获量的增加量与东太平洋海温距平间存在显著的相关关系。以全世界的捕获量为例,其关系式为:△Cn=31ATn-1+22(吨)(AT≤4.0)或 △Cn=-31ATn-1+270(吨)(AT>4.0)
英文摘要:
      According to the biological characteristics of eel (Anguilla japonica)and the phenomenon of El Nino, a study on the relation between eel fry catchesand the environment has been attempted, By using statistic method to analysethe data of recent three years, it was found that the fluctuation of the eel fry pro-duction correlated with the SST anomalies of eastern Pacific. And also, the increm-ent or reduction of eel fry catch can be affected by El Nino. The year next to ElNino year is the year of increment of eel fry catch. The period of increment or re-duction of eel fry catch is 2-4 years. As to the catch level before 1987, the propor-tion of eel fry catch among the world, mainland of China and Japan is 100: 35: 45.Under the most situation, when 8.7≥AT≥-0.7, the eel fry catch will increase.Otherwise, it will reduce. The forecast regression equation of the world's eel frycatch can be described as follows:ΔCn=31ATn-1+22tons(AT≤4.0)ΔCn=-31Tn-1-270tons(AT4.0)
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